Finding the Canadian path to net zero greenhouse gas emissions
The Canadian Institute for Climate Choices wrote a flagship report on the Canadian approach to the global quest to radically reduce carbon emissions to reduce climate change. They approached us to develop some punchy visuals that would clarify their findings and help give them wide recognition.
An interactive summary
The main deliverable is an interactive that explains the crucial finding: there are two types of solutions to reduce emissions and both of them are necessary, although they need a slightly different approach.
Our interactive takes the reader through the steps to understand what is net zero emissions and then how the Institute has organized the solutions and finally how they can be combined to reach the goal.
Click here to go directly to the interactive visualization.
A winning hand
This is essentially a static version of the final visual in the interactive. With full annotations, it can be used in print to sum up the combination of solutions to achieve net zero emissions.
The bars with a cloud background represent the greenhouse gas emissions, something central yet rarely seen in graph about their reduction.
Before
The pictures of 2030 and 2050
The combination of solutions will be very different in 2030 and 2050. The safe bets have immense potential, but mostly in the long run and none of it can be taken for granted. This visual is meant to convey the difference between the 2030 situation and that of 2050.
Before
Three energy systems
The Institute images three main systems, i.e. combinations of solutions, for 2050. This illustration replaces a matrix in a table and brings to life these concepts. They are united on an isomorphic grid to allow the reader’s eye to fly from one system to the other.
Before
Factors affecting oil & gas production
Most interestingly, this decision tree started as an area chart. It became clear however that the main message was less about the projected levels of production and more about the conditions for each scenario. This decision tree shows the reader what is needed for oil and gas production to remain high in Canada over the next 30 years.
Before
The interactive
Here is the interactive presentation of the project. Scroll away!
WHAT IS NET ZERO?
Achieving net zero emissions requires shifting to technologies and energy systems that do not produce greenhouse gas emissions, while removing any remaining emissions from the atmosphere and storing them permanently.
Put simply, Canada would need to take as many emissions out of the atmosphere as it puts in, rather than leaving them there to contribute to climate change.
NET ZERO IS POSSIBLE
Canada has many options for achieving net zero emissions—but the journey ahead is not straightforward.
We analyzed over 60 scenarios in which Canada reaches net zero by 2050 to identify which solutions show up again and again on various pathways, and which ones may only work in very specific circumstances.
TWO KINDS OF NET ZERO SOLUTIONS
Safe bets are “no regrets” solutions—ones based on existing technologies that can be scaled up to help reach Canada’s 2030 target. They are likely to play a lead part in reducing emissions no matter what.
Wild cards are big-risk, big-reward technologies that could be important to reaching Canada’s 2050 goal. But they come with more uncertainty than the solutions available today, and are not guaranteed to succeed
Let's look into these two types of solutions.
Many solutions will likely be part of Canada's net zero story no matter which pathway we take.
They will contribute a significant portion of the emissions reductions required to reach Canada’s 2030 and 2050 targets.
Reaching Canada’s climate targets requires scaling up safe bets.
Across all scenarios, nearly two-thirds of emissions reductions by 2030 rely on quickly and decisively scaling up proven technologies and existing policies.
Looking across all the scenarios we consider, we can estimate the minimum contribution that safe bets will make to Canada’s 2030 and 2050 targets, as well as their upper range.
Wild card solutions may come to play a significant and important role on the path to net zero—but their ultimate prospects are still uncertain.
Wild cards are complementary, not competing, solutions.
Depending on which ones pay off, they could fundamentally change Canada’s path to net zero.
Advancing these potential solutions requires careful attention to risk and uncertainty.
Unlocking the potential of wild cards to drive cost-effective emissions reductions requires particular conditions and outcomes to arise.
Because wild cards aren’t guaranteed to play a significant role, greater uncertainty is inherent to net zero pathways that rely significantly on this type of solution.
CANADA’S WINNING HAND
Our modelling finds Canada can rely mostly on safe bet solutions to get to 2030. They are also critical to getting to Canada’s 2050 target.
Wild cards are important for reaching Canada’s 2050 target. They play a much smaller role in getting to Canada’s 2030 target than the safe bets.
The size of the role they play by 2050 varies across the scenarios we examine, depending on which early-stage technologies become viable, what their relative costs are, and how scalable they prove to be.
GETTING TO NET ZERO BY 2050
A winning hand requires both safe bets and wild cards.
Safe bets need policy that will drive both their widespread deployment and uptake. Wild cards need policy that will drive their development and advancement, so they are ready when we need them.
Navigating a successful transition to net zero in Canada requires policy to drive safe bets and wild card solutions simultaneously.
